A note on sources and method
Every figure below is referenced to a primary or authoritative source: the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), NHS England, the Bank of England, gov.uk, the House of Commons Library, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), the Resolution Foundation, and the independent fact-checking charity Full Fact (whose government pledge-tracker is cited throughout). Each claim was checked against its source. Two cautions run through the whole piece: statistics are sensitive to the time-period and baseline chosen, and several headline improvements were driven by inherited policy or wider macro trends rather than by Starmer's government — these are flagged where they apply. The narrative of the political collapse leans more on contemporary journalism and parliamentary records than on official statistics, and is labelled as such.
Introduction
Keir Starmer entered Downing Street on 5 July 2024 with a landslide majority and a tightly disciplined manifesto built around "five missions" and a short list of "first steps." Two years later, on 22 June 2026, he announced his resignation as Labour leader and Prime Minister, brought down not by any single policy but by a collapse in support that culminated in catastrophic May 2026 elections (2026 leadership crisis coverage).
The record in between is genuinely mixed. On the statute book, this was one of the busier reforming governments in recent memory — rail nationalisation, the biggest employment-law overhaul in a generation, the abolition of hereditary peers, the two-child benefit cap scrapped, Great British Energy created, planning rules rewritten. On the central promises that voters could feel — bills, boats, waiting lists, the cost of living — delivery was partial, late, or absent. What follows is the ledger.
1. The economy and the public finances
Delivered. The economy avoided recession and grew, modestly. ONS estimates real GDP growth of 1.0% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025 (ONS quarterly national accounts). For the first half of 2025 the UK was the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (0.9% over H1, ahead of the US and the euro area) (HoC Library / OBR / IMF). Inflation fell from its 2022–23 peaks — CPI was 2.8% in the year to May 2026 — and the Bank of England cut Bank Rate from the inherited 5.25% to 3.75% (ONS). After gilt-market jitters, markets rallied following the November 2025 Budget, with 30-year yields easing to 5.21% (Reuters/Yahoo Finance), and the OBR confirmed the fiscal rules were met with £22bn of headroom (OBR, Nov 2025).
Fell short. The flagship growth mission — "the highest sustained growth in the G7" — is rated "appears off track" by Full Fact: the UK led the G7 on growth-per-head in only a single quarter, and the OBR cut its 2026 forecast to 1.1% (Full Fact). The manifesto promise of "no tax rises on working people" is rated "Not kept": the October 2024 Budget raised taxes by about £40bn (led by a rise in employer National Insurance to 15%), the November 2025 Budget added roughly £26bn more and extended the income-tax threshold freeze to 2031, dragging an estimated 1.7m more people into higher tax bands (Full Fact; OBR). The overall tax burden is heading to a record ~38% of GDP (OBR). The employer NI rise coincided with falling payrolls — employee jobs down 167,000 between October 2024 and April 2025, 95% of them among under-35s (ONS labour market) — though the OBR's own estimate of the policy's labour-supply effect was far smaller, and other factors were at play. Living standards barely moved: the Resolution Foundation projected typical incomes growing only ~1% across the Parliament, with the poorest households' incomes set to fall (Resolution Foundation).
2. The NHS and health
Delivered. The clearest operational win. NHS England announced that the elective waiting list fell to 7.11 million in March 2026, down 515,000 since Labour took office, and that the interim 65% 18-week target was met — the largest year-on-year fall in 16 years (NHS England). Full Fact rates the "40,000 extra weekly appointments" pledge "achieved" (5.2 million more appointments, July 2024–June 2025) (Full Fact). The government ended the inherited junior-doctors' dispute in 2024 with a substantial pay deal (BMA), published a 10-Year Health Plan (gov.uk), funded 700,000 extra urgent dental appointments, agreed the first negotiated GP contract in four years, and launched the Casey Commission on social care (gov.uk).
Fell short. The improvement was not durable or complete: the waiting list rose again to 7.22 million in April 2026, and the 92% constitutional standard (pledged for 2029) remains far off — the IFS estimates the list must fall by roughly 54% to get there (IFS). The labour-relations "reset" collapsed: resident doctors struck repeatedly through 2025 and into June 2026 (BMA). Starmer abolished NHS England (March 2025), triggering the biggest reorganisation in a decade and up to ~30,000 job cuts (Institute for Government), and meaningful social-care reform was deferred to 2028, prompting Age UK to call it "far too slow" (gov.uk).
3. Migration and borders
Delivered. Net migration roughly halved: ONS provisional figures put it at 204,000 in the year to June 2025 (and the Migration Observatory cites ~171,000 for calendar 2025, down 48%), versus a peak of about 944,000 in the year to March 2023 (ONS). Starmer scrapped the Rwanda scheme on day one — a programme that had cost ~£700m to relocate four volunteers (NAO) — set up a Border Security Command on a statutory footing (legislation.gov.uk), cut the initial asylum-decision backlog by ~46% (Migration Observatory), raised returns to a multi-year high (~38,000 in 2025) (Migration Observatory), and tightened legal migration via the May 2025 white paper (HoC Library).
Fell short. The signature pledge to "smash the gangs" and stop the boats was not met: small-boat crossings rose 13% in 2025 to ~41,500, the second-highest year on record (Migration Observatory) — though, in fairness, crossings then fell ~13% year-on-year in the 12 months to May 2026. The "one in, one out" returns deal with France was tiny in scale (~605 returned by May 2026). The promise to end asylum-hotel use slipped to 2029, with 185 hotels still open (Full Fact), and the asylum appeals backlog ballooned to a record ~80,000 (Migration Observatory). Crucially, analysts attribute most of the net-migration fall to Conservative-era visa restrictions introduced in early 2024, not to Labour policy (Migration Observatory).
4. Crime and justice
Delivered. The crime statistics improved markedly. Police-recorded homicide fell to 499 in the year to September 2025 — the lowest count since 2003 (one ONS framing put it as the lowest since 1983) — and knife-enabled homicide fell 23% (ONS). (Note: this is the "lowest count" figure; it is distinct from the separate "lowest homicide rate since 1977" statistic that circulated online.) The government banned ninja swords under "Ronan's Law" (gov.uk), removed 63,000+ blades via surrender schemes, exceeded its year-one neighbourhood-policing target (+3,123 officers/PCSOs) (gov.uk), launched a national statutory inquiry into grooming gangs (Hansard via Al Jazeera), and delivered the Gauke sentencing review (Hansard) and a £1bn+ violence-against-women-and-girls strategy (gov.uk).
Fell short. To relieve prison overcrowding, the government freed tens of thousands of prisoners early under the SDS40 scheme (26,456 between September 2024 and March 2025) — uncomfortable next to "take back our streets" (Inside Time) — yet prisons remained critically overcrowded and the prison-building programme was branded "unachievable" (Institute for Government). The pledges to halve serious violent crime and halve violence against women and girls lack a defined metric and remain far off, with 10.6% of adults (5.1m people) reporting domestic abuse, sexual assault or stalking (gov.uk strategy). The grooming-gangs inquiry came only after months of resistance and a damaging U-turn.
5. Housing and planning
Delivered. A heavy legislative programme: the Planning and Infrastructure Act 2025 (gov.uk), the Renters' Rights Act 2025 abolishing Section 21 "no-fault" evictions (gov.uk), the lifting of the de facto onshore-wind ban within days of taking office (gov.uk), mandatory local housing targets restored (NPPF, Dec 2024), a £39bn 10-year social and affordable homes programme (gov.uk), and seven proposed new towns (gov.uk).
Fell short. The headline 1.5 million homes pledge is rated "appears off track" by Full Fact — only ~342,000 net homes (22.8% of target) in the first ~20 months, with net additions actually falling to 208,600 in 2024/25 (Full Fact). Worse for the future pipeline, planning permissions hit a multi-year low (down 25% year-on-year) (Home Builders Federation). The "immediate" Section 21 abolition arrived 22 months late (1 May 2026), and leasehold abolition was pushed beyond the Parliament (HomeOwners Alliance / Local Government Lawyer).
6. Energy and net zero
Delivered. Great British Energy was established by statute (Royal Assent 15 May 2025), headquartered in Aberdeen with £8.3bn behind it (gov.uk). The government published a Clean Power 2030 Action Plan (gov.uk), took the first nuclear final investment decision since 2016 at Sizewell C with a 44.9% state stake (gov.uk), contracted Rolls-Royce to build the UK's first small modular reactors (gov.uk), ran record renewables auctions (AR7 secured 14.7GW) (Energy UK), confirmed no new North Sea exploration licences (gov.uk), and saw renewables reach a record 44% of electricity in 2025, the first coal-free year (Carbon Brief).
Fell short. The most-repeated retail promise — cutting energy bills by up to £300 — went the wrong way: the Ofgem price cap rose from £1,568 (mid-2024) and was set to rise a further 13% from July 2026 (Ofgem). GB Energy's Aberdeen jobs pledge was scaled back from 1,000+ to 200–300 (The Scotsman), much of its capital was diverted to nuclear (Full Fact), the Grangemouth refinery closed with ~400 jobs lost (The Scotsman), and the Warm Homes Plan was delayed to January 2026 (gov.uk).
7. Welfare, poverty and families
Delivered. The defining anti-poverty measure: the two-child benefit limit was abolished (Royal Assent 18 March 2026, effective 6 April 2026), projected to lift ~450,000 children out of relative poverty (gov.uk); the Resolution Foundation projects child poverty falling for the first time in nearly a decade (Resolution Foundation). The government extended free school meals to all children in Universal Credit households (gov.uk), rolled out free breakfast clubs, maintained the pension triple lock (+4.1% then +4.8%) (gov.uk), completed the 30-hours funded childcare rollout (HoC Library), and legislated the first real-terms rise in the Universal Credit standard allowance in years (HoC Library).
Fell short. Two self-inflicted wounds dominate. First, means-testing the Winter Fuel Payment in July 2024 stripped it from ~10m pensioners — then was reversed under pressure a year later, widely blamed for Labour's electoral damage (HoC Library). Second, the attempt to cut disability and PIP benefits triggered the largest backbench rebellion of the Parliament in July 2025; ministers gutted the bill mid-debate, and the IFS concluded it would deliver essentially no net savings, blowing a hole in the fiscal plan (IFS). A cut to the UC health element for new claimants survived (Scope). The two-child cap, eventually scrapped, was defended for 18 months first — with seven Labour MPs losing the whip in July 2024 for trying to abolish it sooner (ITV/Full Fact).
8. Workers' rights and pay
Delivered. The Employment Rights Act 2025 (Royal Assent 18 December 2025) is the biggest employment-law overhaul in a generation (gov.uk/Wikipedia summary). From April 2026 it delivered statutory sick pay from day one (extending SSP to ~1.3m low-paid workers) (Acas), day-one paternity and parental leave (Lewis Silkin), a new Fair Work Agency, and the repeal of Conservative strike and union laws. The National Living Wage rose to a record £12.71 (+6.7% in 2025, +4.1% in 2026), with larger rises for younger workers (gov.uk).
Fell short. Most of the Act's headline protections were phased to 2026–2027 and not yet in force when Starmer resigned (DLA Piper). The flagship "day-one" unfair-dismissal right was abandoned, replaced after Lords opposition with a 6-month qualifying period taking effect only in January 2027 (Lewis Silkin); "banning exploitative zero-hours contracts" became a softer guaranteed-hours offer, and "ending fire and rehire" was narrowed and delayed. Meanwhile unemployment rose to ~4.9–5.0% (from ~4.0–4.4% at the handover), with youth unemployment at 16.2% (ONS).
9. Foreign policy, defence and Europe
Delivered. A consequential foreign-policy term. The UK-EU "reset" summit (19 May 2025) produced a Security and Defence Partnership, a fishing-access deal to 2038, and an SPS/veterinary agreement in principle (gov.uk). Starmer announced the biggest sustained defence-spending rise since the Cold War (2.5% of GDP by 2027) (HoC Library), signed NATO's 5%-by-2035 target (NATO), delivered the Strategic Defence Review (gov.uk), signed a UK-Ukraine 100-Year Partnership and led the "coalition of the willing" (gov.uk), struck the first Trump-era trade deal cutting US car tariffs (gov.uk), and recognised the State of Palestine (21 September 2025) (gov.uk).
Fell short. The reset's flagship benefit — UK access to the EU's €150bn SAFE defence fund — collapsed in November 2025 over the entry fee (Bloomberg); the youth-mobility scheme stayed unresolved. The US trade deal left the 10% baseline tariff in place and never delivered zero steel tariffs (HoC Library). To fund defence, Starmer cut overseas aid to 0.3% of GNI, its lowest since 1999, prompting a ministerial resignation (HoC Library). The Chagos/Diego Garcia deal became a liability and was shelved by April 2026 amid Trump's opposition (Full Fact). And Palestine recognition changed nothing on the ground (PBS).
10. The quieter deliveries: transport, education and the constitution
These attracted less attention but include some of the government's most complete achievements.
Transport. Rail nationalisation was delivered: the Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Act 2024 (legislation.gov.uk) brought four operators into public ownership by February 2026, starting with South Western Railway (Full Fact), with Great British Railways legislated but not yet operational. The £3 bus-fare cap was extended to 2027 (gov.uk). But HS2 was "reset" with no completion date and costs of up to ~£100bn (gov.uk), and the pothole pledge is rated off track (Full Fact).
Education. VAT on private school fees was applied from January 2025 and survived two court challenges (Full Fact); single-word Ofsted grades were scrapped after the Ruth Perry inquest (ITV). But the SEND system reached crisis, needing a ~£5bn deficit write-off (Schools Week), and the "6,500 new teachers" pledge was substantially redefined (Full Fact).
The constitution. The House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Act 2026 removed the remaining hereditary peers — a clean manifesto delivery (legislation.gov.uk). Votes at 16 was legislated for but not yet law at resignation (Full Fact), and the promised Lords retirement age of 80 was not delivered (Full Fact). The English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act 2026 was a major decentralisation (gov.uk).
The Southport test. After the July 2024 Southport murders and the worst riots since 2011, the justice system moved fast — 912 people prosecuted, ~76% jailed (gov.uk) — but the episode also exposed three missed Prevent referrals for the attacker (gov.uk) and seeded a "two-tier policing" charge Starmer never dispelled (LSE).
11. The promises that defined the fall
Five broken or strained promises did the most political damage, because voters could feel them:
- "No tax rises on working people" — rated not kept; ~£40bn then ~£26bn of tax rises and a record tax burden.
- "Smash the gangs" / stop the boats — crossings hit the second-highest total on record in 2025.
- Cut energy bills by £300 — bills rose instead.
- The Winter Fuel Payment cut — a fast, unpopular decision, reversed within a year.
- The disability/PIP cuts — abandoned after the Parliament's biggest rebellion, delivering no savings and shredding the government's authority.
12. The political collapse and resignation
(This section draws on contemporary reporting and parliamentary records rather than official statistics.)
Starmer's personal ratings fell to near-record lows — net favourability of around −57 by January 2026, comparable to the Truss era (polling aggregation). Reform UK overtook Labour in the polls and, on 1 May 2025, won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by six votes, overturning a ~14,700 Labour majority (Runcorn by-election). The May 2025 local elections saw Reform win 677 seats and ten councils (2025 locals).
The May 2026 elections were the proximate cause of his fall: Labour lost roughly 1,500 councillors and ~35 councils, slumping to about 17%, while Welsh Labour was reduced to nine Senedd seats — losing power in Wales for the first time since devolution — and Scottish Labour fell to its worst-ever Holyrood result (2026 Senedd; 2026 Scottish Parliament). A wave of ministerial resignations followed through May and June 2026, and with around 103 Labour MPs calling for him to go, Starmer announced his resignation on 22 June 2026, agreeing to stay until a successor is chosen (leadership crisis).
13. The verdict
The honest summary is that Starmer's government was more legislatively productive than it was politically successful. On paper it can point to real achievements: rail and energy brought into public hands, the two-child cap scrapped and child poverty turning down, the biggest workers'-rights and defence reforms in decades, hereditary peers gone, waiting lists and crime falling, net migration halved. Many of these are genuine and will outlast him.
But three patterns explain why none of it saved him. First, timing: the biggest wins (the cap, the Employment Rights Act, the social-homes programme, the new towns) were back-loaded — legislated late and delivering benefits after his tenure, while the pain (tax rises, winter fuel, the boats, flat living standards) was felt immediately. Second, attribution: the most cited statistic — falling net migration — was largely the product of inherited policy, while the macro tailwinds of falling inflation and rate cuts were not of his making. Third, the felt economy: growth was real but thin, wages barely moved, bills rose, and unemployment crept up — so even accurate good-news numbers never translated into how people felt.
His own framing — that housing, growth and border control were always five-to-ten-year projects — has merit. The trouble was that the politics ran out of road long before the timeline did.
Compiled 22 June 2026. Figures are accurate to the sources cited and to the periods stated; where a statistic is sensitive to baseline or time-window, that is noted in the text. Political-trajectory figures (poll ratings, election results, the resignation chronology) rely on contemporary journalism and parliamentary records and should be read as such.